1. Cartel War Gets a U.S. Upgrade

Mexico’s Navy arrested alleged a cartel commander Rafael Álvarez Ayala and 19 others in a DEA-backed operation. Separately, Washington approved a possible $1.08 billion sale of 11 Black Hawk helicopters to Mexico.

Decoding it:

U.S.-Mexico security cooperation is deepening. Intelligence sharing is helping target cartel leaders, while a potential helicopter purchase could equip Mexican forces for more complex raids.

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2. Central Bank’s Musical Chairs

Finance Secretary Édgar Amador is reportedly being considered to replace Jonathan Heath at Mexico’s Central Bank when his term ends in December.

Decoding it:

The possible switch comes as Mexico faces Pemex’s fiscal burden, USMCA uncertainty and credit-rating scrutiny. Investors will care as much about who replaces Amador as who joins the central bank.

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3. Mexico Makes Corporations Pay More

Mexico’s 2027 tax reform caps corporate deductions, limits the use of past losses and tightens interest write-offs. Big business is whining.

Decoding it:

The changes could raise an additional $7.5 billion for the government, helping fund infrastructure, schools and hospitals that are essential to attracting private investment.

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4. Fugitive Judge Arrested

A Mexican judge arrested in Colombia faces a U.S. extradition request over allegations he took a $2 million bribe to free a suspected associate of an alleged cocaine trafficking network.

Decoding it:

The judge was one of the few remaining from Mexico’s old judicial system, which supposedly promoted judges based on merit to control corruption. That was clearly not the case.

5. A Conveniently ‘Neutral’ Referee

Mexico’s opposition is exploiting the corruption scandal at the electoral authority (INE) to demand a “neutral” new president. But its definition of neutrality is rather convenient: someone closer to its political interests and further from Morena.

Decoding it:

Demanding a neutral referee is a convenient distraction from the institutional failures that enabled the scandal. What really prevents corruption is effective oversight and credible punishment.

1. American Voters Will Reshape Mexico.

Tuesday’s U.S. midterms could reshape Mexico’s approach to Trump. Bilateral ties will hold, but a Democratic swing might put labor and environmental standards higher on the trade agenda.

Decoding it:

Mexico’s strategy consist on builing relationships with whoever holds power in the United States. The election may change the demands, but not the central goal of Mexico which is to preserve North American trade.

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2. Oil Soars But Pemex Still Loses.

Pemex lost 10.8 billion pesos last quarter despite Mexican crude averaging $85 a barrel. Operating income surged and refining reached its highest throughput since 2014, but financial costs and currency losses kept it in the red.

Decoding it:

Even high oil prices have not fixed Pemex underlying problems. The company has better refining results and some new productive fields, but neither of these variables are enough to keep it afloat.

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3. Mexico’s Economy Finds Its Pulse

Mexico’s economy grew 3.2% year over year in the third quarter. Public investment rose 8% through September, while private investment increased 6.7% in July.

Decoding it:

The rebound gives Sheinbaum a welcome economic headline. The real test is whether private investment can sustain the momentum amid uncertainty over the future of North American trade.

4. Mexico’s Electoral Authority Gets a Makeover

Sheinbaum reportedly wants a nonpartisan successor to former electoral chief Guadalupe Taddei ahead of the 2027 elections. Several names are circulating, but some candidates’ ties to government raise questions about independence.

Decoding it:

Replacing Taddei offers a chance to rebuild confidence in Mexico’s electoral referee. The challenge is finding someone whose independence is credible beyond the ruling party.

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5. Big Tech and Little Scrutiny

Mexico’s antitrust regulator faces conflict-of-interest allegations involving a Meta case and questions over Google’s treatment in a digital advertising probe.

Decoding it:

Google reportedly escaped sanctions despite controlling 55% of Mexico’s digital advertising market. Anti-corruption authorities are reportedly reviewing one commissioner’s vote whose brother holds a a senior position at Meta.

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The divergence is so striking that we have dedicated this week’s Mexico Decoded essay to explaining it, examining the three main reasons Mexican business leaders give for withholding investment, concerns that foreign investors do not appear to share.

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1. Mexico’s Healthcare Headache Is Getting Worse

Medicine shortages, understaffed hospitals and labor unrest are putting pressure on president Sheinbaum. IMSS workers rejected a 6.8% compensation increase and are demanding a 10% salary raise, with fresh protests planned for October 21.

Decoding it:

Healthcare is becoming a growing political liability. New pharmaceutical contracts worth 84 billion pesos have done little to quiet criticism, while mounting pressure raises questions about the future of senior health officials.

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2. Tariff War May Be Cooling Down

Mexico’s Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard says the U.S. may be open to reducing tariffs on Mexican goods. Although formal negotiations have stalled, informal talks continue, raising hopes for a deal ahead of the U.S. midterms.

Decoding it:

Trump may have a political incentive to strike a deal with Mexico before the elections. For Sheinbaum, securing better access to the U.S. market would be a major victory, although the timetable remains uncertain.

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3. Mexico Bets $12.5 Billion on Green Energy

Mexico plans to approve more than 60 private renewable energy projects worth $12.5 billion. The wind and solar plants would add 8.2 gigawatts to the national grid, roughly equivalent to the capacity of eight nuclear reactors.

Decoding it:

Sheinbaum is quietly opening the door to private investment in electricity, a departure from her predecessor’s approach. Mexico desperately needs additional power to attract new factories and capitalize on nearshoring.

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4. Dirty Water Crisis Boils

Around 5,000 protesters took to Guadalajara’s streets demanding clean water and justice for victims of last week’s police crackdown.

Decoding it:

What began as a protest over unsafe water is becoming a political crisis for Jalisco Governor Pablo Lemus. Allegations of police repression have fueled demands for his removal, while President Sheinbaum has called for an investigation.

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5. Morena’s Plan to Lose Backfires

Morena’s decision to nominate Clara Luz Flores for governor of Nuevo León has triggered a rebellion led by Tatiana Clouthier. Internal polls show 70% of voters who know Flores dislike her, raising questions about why the party chose such an unpopular candidate.

Decoding it:

Morena may have preferred losing Nuevo León to letting its Green Party ally win the governorship and gain too much power. But the strategy backfired: angry party members are challenging the nomination, threatening a wider rebellion ahead of 2027.

1. Trump Wants a Piece of Mexico’s Energy Sector

Trump reportedly pressed Sheinbaum to expand partnerships with U.S. energy companies and buy more American natural gas. Mexico remains reluctant to open its oil sector, turning energy into a potential flashpoint in USMCA negotiations.

Decoding it:

Mexico wants U.S. investment without surrendering control over its oil industry. Washington has other ideas. The pressure could intensify as Trump seeks to turn trade negotiations into a tool for securing American energy interests.

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2. Morena’s Biggest Enemy Is Morena

Morena’s candidate selections for the 2027 elections are triggering internal rebellions. In Michoacán and Zacatecas, defeated aspirants are challenging party polls and threatening alliances with rival parties.

Decoding it:

Morena’s overwhelming popularity has created an unusual problem: too many politicians fighting for its nominations. With the opposition weakened, the ruling party’s fiercest electoral battles may come from within.

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3. Mexico’s Security Chief Is Already Eyeing the Presidency

Security Secretary Omar García Harfuch is emerging as a potential presidential contender for 2030. His popularity and interest from the Green Party strengthen his prospects, although Morena’s ideological factions remain skeptical.

Decoding it:

Harfuch is a rare figure in Morena: a security technocrat with electoral appeal beyond the party’s traditional base. His biggest obstacle may be convincing Morena’s ideological factions that he is one of them.

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4. Mexico’s Next Political Crisis May Be One Click Away

App-based lending has nearly quadrupled in Mexico in three years. Already, 12% of indebted Mexicans have borrowed through apps. Easy credit and booming online gambling are raising alarms about a potential household debt crisis.

Decoding it:

Mexico’s wage gains risk disappearing into the pockets of digital lenders and betting companies. When families work more, earn more, but still cannot make ends meet, their anger could turn against the government.

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5. Mexicans Demand Clean Water. Police Give Them Tear Gas.

Thousands marched in Guadalajara demanding clean tap water after months of complaints about murky, foul-smelling supplies. When some protesters pushed down barriers near the governor’s residence, police responded with tear gas and high-pressure water cannons.

Decoding it:

The irony is brutal. Residents demanding safe water were blasted with water cannons. The crackdown risks turning a public services failure into a political crisis for Jalisco Governor Pablo Lemus.

Mexico City has a housing problem familiar to dozens of other global cities: neighborhoods built for residents are increasingly becoming Airbnbs.

To avoid this, two years ago Mexico City passed a law designed to contain the growth of short-term rentals. The problem is that since then it has struggled to enforce it. That may finally be changing this month.

Yet, the story of why it took so long to begin implementing the law reveals not only the enormous power that international corporations like Airbnb often wield in Mexico, but also the inability of local governments to move from laws on paper to actual enforcement.

So today’s Mexico Decoded essay tells the story of the dark saga of Mexico City vs. Airbnb.

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Morena, Mexico’s ruling party, has built its identity around former president Andrés Manuel López Obrador. His political trajectory not only marked Mexico’s last 20 years but also turned him into a widely recognized figure that even found a small niche in the economy, with t-shirts, keychains, and plush toys.

It’s no wonder that, when López Obrador retired in 2024 after ending his presidency, the party he founded started showing cracks, and the cliques that had already formed inside started pushing to grab control of the machinery that generated over 33 million votes for current president Claudia Sheinbaum.

With the 2027 Mexican midterm election coming up, finding strong leadership is the only way Morena can keep the majority it holds in the Legislative Branch and win over the 17 states that are up for grabs. Because of its scale, the election will largely determine Mexico’s political future.

So today, in Mexico Decoded, we’ll analyze Morena and what happens when a party is constructed around a leader, such as López Obrador, who retires and leaves no undisputed successor.

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Violence in Mexico is largely explained by the cartels’ criminal activities, since they operate drug trafficking routes but have expanded their activities to migrant smuggling, extortion, and money laundering, among other crimes. The mystery is why the Mexican State has never been powerful enough to defeat them.

In this edition of Mexico Decoded, we’ll discuss the underlying causes of the violence to understand what has made Mexico fertile ground for the growth of criminal groups.

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This idea is repeated constantly on social media and has even made its way into foreign media outlets and think tanks, most of which argue that social programs should be replaced by paid work. Former right-wing president Vicente Fox famously called recipients of social programs “lazy bums.”

This idea is, at its core, not just mistaken but deeply perverse.

That is why today’s Mexico Decoded essay will unpack this idea, explain who actually receives social benefits in Mexico, and examine what the evidence tells us about their real effects on the labor market.

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This does not mean every private-school student in Mexico is poorly educated. Yet, many students whose families are paying for what is supposed to be a better education often look unusually weak by international standards.

That is why today, we decided to use Mexico Decoded’s weekly essay to examine the evidence behind this surprising pattern and explain why it happens.

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To put Slim’s wealth in perspective, consider this: relative to the size of his country’s economy, he is richer than Elon Musk. Musk’s fortune is equivalent to roughly 2.6% of the GDP of the US. Slim’s is equivalent to about 5.9% of Mexico’s GDP.

Yet, to truly understand Slim’s impact on Mexico, dollar figures are not enough. One has to look at the legacy he has built in the country or, more accurately, at the legacy he has failed to build.

That is why, in today’s edition of Mexico Decoded, we take a closer look at how Carlos Slim became Mexico’s richest man and how his rise may have come at the expense of Mexico’s growth.

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If you have visited Mexico City during the rainy season, you have probably noticed one of its most dreaded features: flooding. In 2026 alone, storms have flooded major roads, brought traffic to a standstill, and sent rainwater pouring into Mexico City’s international airport.

This leads many people to assume that the city gets most of its water from rainfall collected through the drainage system and later filtered. Yet, that is not how it works. In fact, most of the rainwater that enters the drainage system goes to waste.

Mexico City’s main source of water is a mysterious forest that few people know about. This week, Mexico Decoded will devote its essay to this forest and to show you how to plan a wonderful visit to it.

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As a result, the Mexican government has faced various accusations from the United States, including colluding with the drug cartels and benefitting China and Russia regarding the steel trade, followed by demands on both the political and economic fronts.

So, in this edition of Mexico Decoded, we’ll break down what Mexico should do to defend itself from the United States’ growing and abusive demands while keeping the relationship healthy enough to avoid a fallout.

To do so, we examine how other countries have successfully prevented the United States from overreaching and how Mexico could benefit from adopting some of their strategies.

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Source: Screenshot from Reddit post

A more realistic picture would point to an unequal distribution of these green areas, with the bigger part of them located in tourist-friendly areas such as Condesa, Roma, and Chapultepec.

What’s behind the uneven distribution of green areas in Mexico City? This week’s essay on Mexico Decoded will dive into some of the reasons behind it.

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This is an excellent measure for reducing corruption, but many analysts agree that it puts Morena at a disadvantage. Unlike other parties, which agreed on applying the anti-nepotism law in 2030, Morena unilaterally decided to enforce it immediately. This means that, in the 2027 election, opposition parties will be the only ones with the advantage of nominating political bosses and members of clans that control a significant number of votes in certain territories.

The question is why Morena is in a rush to eliminate nepotism within its ranks. The answer reveals more about how politics work in Mexico than the electoral results themselves.

That is why, today, we dedicate the Mexico Decoded essay to explaining the reasons why Morena’s leadership rightly believes that implementing this reform is not a disadvantage, but a critical step if the party is to remain in power.

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And while everyone knows Mexico is one of the most unequal countries in the world, what is less obvious is that inequality survives not only through low wages, inherited wealth, or weak public expenditure, but also through something more obscure like misleading tax statistics.

So today, we will dedicate the weekly essay of Mexico Decoded to analyzing how this works.

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At every World Cup, Mexico arrives with one of the largest and most visible fan bases in football. Yet its team never wins.

Mexico has not made it to the quarterfinals since 1986, which means that most of the country’s population, which is young, has not been alive to witness it.

For decades, this contradiction had a chant: “Sí se puede” (“Yes, we can”). It was the a battle cry that Mexican fans carried into stadiums and tournaments, a way of insisting that defeat was not inevitable, even when history suggested otherwise.

“Sí se puede” was the language of the hopeful underdog. It belonged to a country that knew its team was usually at a disadvantage, but refused to accept the match as lost before it began. It was less a prediction than an act of faith: maybe this time, somehow, things would finally go differently.

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Every Mexican fan knows that “Sí se puede” accumulated decades of disappointment. Mexico is a football country with a large public, a strong emotional investment in the sport, and a national team that has often promised more than it has delivered. The gap between expectation and result became part of the ritual.

That is why the rare moments of triumph mattered so much. There were not many occasions when fans could move from “Sí se puede” to “Sí se pudo” (“Yes, we did it”).

The reality is that over the last three decades, alongside the hollowing out and weakening of the state, Mexico’s national sport became precarious and privatized into fiefdoms of power. The Mexican league, which deserves the harshest criticism, became a plague of cronyism and corruption.

Perhaps that is why Mexico’s football chant has begun to dramatically change.

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Colombia’s left did what left-wing governments are supposed to do and what Mexico’s government is also trying to do. It reduced poverty, raised wages, and pushed reforms meant to improve the lives of workers and the elderly.

Yet this week, Colombian voters moved away from that government and replaced it with one by Abelardo de la Espriella, a wealthy hard-right lawyer promising a politics closer to Trump, Milei, Bolsonaro, and Bukele.

The question is why Colombian voters did this.

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While Mexico debates the World Cup and next year’s local elections, the question of how the country will cross the most consequential technological revolution of our era remains, at best, fuzzy.

Nobody, not inside the government, not inside the private sector, has come up with a concrete plan to make sure AI benefits Mexico. Or at least, that it doesn’t leave Mexico sidelined and dependent on technology that it doesn’t control and that will voraciously absorb the profits of Mexican companies.

As a result, Mexico is falling into one of its deepest development traps, yet one that is receiving very little attention.

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Countries have reacted in different ways. Some have ignored him. Others have complained behind closed doors. Mexico, however, is trying something different. Instead of simply brushing off Trump's remarks, Mexico is betting on a riskier approach: confronting him head-on.

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